|Estimates of HIV Incidence from Household-based Prevalence Surveys|
||Timothy B. Hallett, John Stover, Vinod Mishra, Peter D. Ghys, Simon Gregsone and Ties Boerma
||AIDS, 2010, 24:147–152
||Objective: To estimate HIV incidence in the general population in countries where
there have been two recent household-based HIV prevalence surveys (the Dominican
Republic, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, and Zambia).
Methods: We applied a validated method to estimate HIV incidence using HIV
prevalence measurement in two surveys.
Results: We estimate incidence among men and women aged 15–44 years to be:
0.5/1000 person-years at risk in the Dominican Republic 2002–2007, 1.1/1000 in Mali
2001–2006, 0.6/1000 in Niger 2002–2006, 3.4/1000 in Tanzania 2004–2008, and
11.2/1000 in Zambia 2002–2007. The groups most at risk in these epidemics are
typically 15–24-year-old women and 25–39-year-old men. Incidence appears to have
declined in recent years in all countries, but only significantly among men in the
Dominican Republic and Tanzania and women in Zambia.
Conclusion: Using prevalence measurements to estimate incidence reveals the current
level and age distribution of new infections and the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. This
information is more useful than prevalence data alone and should be used to help
determine priorities for interventions.