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Relationship between Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Total Fertility Rate: Revisiting the Empirical Model
Authors: Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi, and M Kabir
Source: Journal of Population and Development, 1: 1-14
Topic(s): Contraception
Family planning
Country: More than one region
  Multiple Regions
Published: DEC 2014
Abstract: Studies repeatedly showed a strong negative relationship between the proportion of women who are using contraceptives and their total fertility rates (TFR). The most recognized relationship between TFR and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was illustrated by the empirical model developed by Bongaarts and Potter (1983). The model was based on data from 22 developing countries at the initial phase of fertility transition all over the world. To re-examine the empirical relation between fertility and contraception, DHS data of 74 different countries since 1990s were used in this study. Considering four different regions of the world separately and together, the results indicate that there is an association between decline in the expected level of natural fertility and increase in CPR. Besides Central and Sub-Saharan African countries, the country specific data suggest that due to fluctuation of TFR against irregular trend in contraceptive use, the predicting power of the fitted model also supported by corresponding measure of goodness of fit. The analysis shows that to achieve replacement level of fertility further increase in contraceptive use will be required in many of these developing countries. Keywords: TFR; CPR; Developing Countries