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Bölgesel gebeligi önleyici modern yöntem kullanma orani tahmin modelleri [Predictive models for the regional usage rate(s) of modern contraceptive method(s)]
Authors: Burak Tunc
Source: Turkish Journal of Public Health, 12(2):127-135
Topic(s): Family planning
Reproductive health
Country: Asia
Published: MAY 2014
Abstract: Objective: The aim of this study is to predict a prevalance ratio for regional modern family planning (FP) methods with the help of forecasting models that include factors related to modern family planning methods. Methods: Ecological research that aimed to predict the prevalance of modern family planning methods was performed using reliable international and national data. Prediction models: Stepwise multi-variate linear regression model: The prevalance of modern FP methods was used as dependent variable; total fertility rates, the average number of years of schooling for women, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and average age at first marriage for the women were used as the independent variables. Data from 164 countries were included in the model. Simple linear regression model: Two seperate models (data from 164 countries and data from the 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey) were constructed using only total fertility rate (TFR) because other data could not be reached. Results: The stepwise multi-variate linear regression model’s R2 value was 0.503 and the model that included the total fertility rate and per capita GDP was found to be significant. Model equation: (y)= 56.401 – 7.127 X (x1) + 0.001 X (x2) (y) = prevalance of modern family planning methods (x1)= total fertility rate, (x2)=per capita gross domestic product Simple linear regression model’s R2 belonging to two separate groups; R2; 0.421-0.600 Countries’ data model (y1) = 71.645-10.215 x (X1) 2008 TDAHS areas’ data (y2) = 58.031 -6.739 x (X1) (y)=modern family planning methods prevalance, (x1)= total fertility rate Conclusion: The explanatory level of three different models is in accordance with other studies but shows inconsistencies at the regional level. Key Words: Forecasting studies in reproductive health, linear models, family planning service