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Parameterisation of the transition to first marriage with the Picrate model: Application to African countries using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
Authors: Michel L. Garenne, Pauline M. Leclerc, and Alan P. Matthews
Source: Southern African Journal of Demography, 12(1): 109-124
Topic(s): Marriage
Country: Africa
  Multiple African Countries
Published: JAN 2011
Abstract: The age pattern of first marriage in Africa was parameterised with a 3-parameter mathematical model, based on the Weibull distribution. The model is then fitted to empirical data of the proportion ever married at exact age (a) provided by DHS. The model also provides direct estimates of median, mean, and standard deviation of the age at first marriage. Results of the parameterisation are presented for 34 African countries for women and 31 countries for men. These show a wide variety of situations, from countries with universal and early marriage of women to countries with a large proportion of women who never marry, and a slow rate of entry into marriage. In contrast, there were fewer variations in marriage patterns for men. Correlations between marriage patterns for men and women were moderate, showing the complexity of the African marriage markets. Key Words Marriage, Age pattern, Marriage market, Mathematical Model, Sub-Saharan Africa