| Fertility Change in Egypt: From Second to Third Birth |
| Authors: |
Daniele Vignoli |
| Source: |
Demographic Research, Volume 15, Article 18, Pages 499-516 |
| Topic(s): |
Fertility
|
| Country: |
Africa
Egypt
|
| Published: |
DEC 2006 |
| Abstract: |
This work focuses on Egypt, a country that notwithstanding its advanced stage of sociodemographic transition has shown near stagnation in the reduction of fertility levels in
the last decade. The progression from second to third birth is a crucial component in
fertility change, since the reduction especially of third and higher-order births maintains
the fertility decline. For this reason, the study aims at analyzing the main determinants
of the third-birth intensities of Egyptian two-child mothers, applying an event-history
analysis to the 2000 Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey. The study’s results
show that fertility differentials among the country’s social groups continue to persist.
Moreover, the difficult change in the fertility of women with high educational standards
seems to be responsible for the stalling fertility decline during recent years. The
analysis, however, has demonstrated that within the framework of the ongoing process
of modernization in the country, even the most laggard groups of women showed a
decrease in third-birth intensity during the 1990s. The study also reveals that the
preference for at least one son in the family on the progression to the third child is
weakening among women who have completed secondary education. |
| Web: |
http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/18/15-18.pdf |
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