| The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4: Monitoring Trends in Child Survival in Africa |
| Authors: |
Michel Garenne |
| Source: |
Global Pediatric Health, 2(1–8); DOI: 10.1177/2333794X15584622 |
| Topic(s): |
Childhood mortality
Children under five
HIV/AIDS
Malaria
|
| Country: |
Africa
Multiple African Countries
|
| Published: |
APR 2015 |
| Abstract: |
Background. The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) proposed to reduce under-5 mortality rates
(U5MR) by two thirds within 25 years. The article discusses changes in U5MR for 35 sub-Saharan African countries,
for which DHS surveys are available. Methods. Analysis of DHS data, reconstruction of time series of U5MR, and
comparison with other series. Findings. Few countries were able to achieve MDG-4 from 1985 to 2010, and the few
who did seem to have achieved the goal apparently either because of abnormally high baseline or a surprisingly low
endpoint. If all countries experienced significant mortality decline, only a minority had a steady decline, and many
had periods of rising and falling mortality, for a variety of reasons. Interpretation. Discussion focuses on data quality,
on methods for estimating levels and trends in under-5 mortality, and on the circumstances explaining rises and falls
in mortality. MDG-4 appeared overambitious for Africa, given high mortality levels, political instability, economic
crises, and above all emerging diseases, in particular HIV/AIDS. The last 10 years from 2000 to 2010 appeared as the
most favorable period since 1960 in African countries, with the exception of countries with widespread HIV/AIDS. |
| Web: |
http://gph.sagepub.com/content/2/2333794X15584622.full.pdf+html |
|